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SF and elephant tail rides
Saturday, 16 June 2012 - 11:35 AM SL Time
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Former Army Commander Gen. Sarath Fonseka looks a different man today. He is beginning to act like a politician. Before the last presidential election, he would launch into long diatribes against his political rivals to the extent of offending his audience. He lacked control over his untamed, military tongue, which cost him many a vote and ruined whatever chances he may have had of winning. But, the sobering political reality and experience in civvy street have apparently had a mellowing effect on him if his conduct at Thursday`s press briefing is anything to go by. It seems to have dawned on him that, as crafty politicians say, more flies could be caught with honey than with vinegar!
However, Gen. Fonseka said nothing new at his press conference except some rhetoric for the occasion. He basically gave a recap on what he had been saying all these months. He reiterated his desire to forge a grand opposition alliance while ruling out the possibility of joining the government and hanging on to the `elephant tail`. Although nothing is more certain than the unexpected in politics where adversity as well as mutual interests make strange bedfellows, not even the most optimistic among political observers would expect him to join the government. But, it is rather doubtful whether he could do without the Elephant or the UNP if he is really serious about making a political comeback.
The former army chief`s reference to the elephant tail is of interest. It reminds us of a popular Sri Lankan folktale where a group of peasants try to go to heaven by clinging on to the tail of an elephant that descends from the empyrean to feast on young paddy plants in their village under the cover of night and returns at first light. Unfortunately, their hopes are dashed and they come crashing down to earth because the person who is hanging on to the elephant`s tail with others holding on to him unwittingly loses his grip in trying to describe the heaven. However, in the case of Gen. Fonseka, the elephant he tried to ride all the way to political heaven was flightless. It was a crippled animal which even its owners had given up on. He waited holding its tail the whole night only to realise his mistake the following morning!
Unfortunately for Gen. Fonseka, no party other than the UNP or the SLFP or coalitions led by them is capable of forming governments and it is only wishful thinking that anyone could win the presidency or power in Parliament without the support of either of the two main parties. So, if SF is to secure a bridgehead in politics to launch a fresh offensive against the Rajapaksa government, he needs the unstinted backing of the ailing Elephant, whether he likes it or not. But, his problem is how to win back the Jumbo party whose leaders have manifestly ditched him and are on a witch hunt against their parliamentarians seen with him in public.
Before the last presidential election, Gen. Fonseka had to concentrate only on the government front but today, in trying to shore up his political campaign and make some headway, he has had to fight on two more fronts defended by his erstwhile allies, the UNP and the JVP. Both these parties, currently in the throes of a leadership crisis, will not be able to field formidable candidates at the next presidential election as well. SF is apparently expecting to be catapulted to the helm of a joint Opposition to be cobbled together again. But, the chances of their opting for an outsider as the common candidate look bleak this time around, given the fact that the UNP pulled out of the Opposition alliance which backed SF`s presidential bid immediately after the polls, to go it alone at the 2010 parliamentary election. The JVP last November admitted that it had blundered by supporting Gen. Fonseka`s presidential candidature. It is rather unlikely that the TNA will support SF again as he is one of the Sri Lankan leaders the LTTE groups overseas have levelled war crimes allegations against.
The immediate challenge before Gen. Fonseka, as we argued the other day, is the next PC polls where he will have to vie with the JVP and the UNP, and his real political strength will be revealed. Nothing short of a spectacular performance in that contest will help him muster the support of the UNP`s rank and file to make the Elephant kneel before him once again. Is he equal to the task?
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