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The Tigers deny responsibility for recent attacks on the army, blaming them on spontaneous Tamil uprisings. Tiger political chief S.P. Tamilchelvan says the Sri Lankan army and its paramilitary squads have provoked such unrest. The Northeast Secretariat on Human Rights, which receives some funding from the Tigers but is reputed for its independence, has recorded the death of more than 70 Tamil civilians since Rajapakse`s election, killed by the army or plainclothes death squads. The killings include the execution-style shooting of five Tamil students, the assassination of a Tamil parliamentarian in church on Christmas Eve, and the murder of a Tamil actress, her sister and mother at home in Jaffna.

Should war return, its impact will be severe?but probably less so on the southern beaches that are Sri Lanka`s main attraction. Foreign aid and investment will fall, as will tourist numbers. But Sri Lanka`s economy kept growing during the earlier years of war, and is in better shape today than it was, now that a collection of boutique hotels has made the island the favored destination of the long-haul travel crowd. Although tourists may continue to enjoy Sri Lanka, if war is renewed, those who live there year-round will continue to have their aspirations for peace thwarted. Haunting the island is the possibility that neither side in the conflict is able to rise above its worst instincts, and that two decades of ferocious conflict may have brutalized the island beyond repair. Says a European diplomat in Colombo: `Killing is how Sri Lanka does politics.` Father Gnanapragasam Peter, who runs a mission for the Catholic aid charity Caritas, concurs. `Neither side,` he says flatly, `cares for the people.`

It could have been so different. Dayan Jayatilleka, a former visiting scholar of South Asia Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington D.C., says he was amazed in the days after the tsunami to see soldiers donate blood for Tamils. `I thought, `My God. There is hope. Underneath all this hate and suspicion, there is a humanity to us.` It was a magical moment. Then it was gone.`

From the Feb. 20, 2006 issue of TIME Asia Magazine

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