Sept 29, Colombo: Freedom Watch, a voluntary political group in Sri Lanka says the attempts by Western countries to pressure Sri Lanka on alleged war crimes and violations of human rights would help to increase the popularity of President Mahinda Rajapaksa and help him win the next elections with an unparalleled majority.

Following is the Freedom Watch`s outlook on the next presidential and general elections:

The General Election of April 2004 brought to power the UPFA with 105 seats, while the UNP with 82 seats became the strongest party in the opposition.

UPFA`s 105 seats included 38 seats the JVP won by joining the alliance. That the JVP top scored its way to the first 3 slots in most of the electoral districts placing the SLFP`s heavy weights down to the 4th place and below is now history.

But for the alliance, the JVP would not have reaped a harvest of 38 seats is a fact now proved beyond doubt from the results of the series of subsequent provincial elections. The JVP won 3 seats in the Western Provincial Council, 2 in Sabaragamuwa, 1 each in North Western, North Central, and Eastern provinces and none in the Central Province, totaling 8 excluding Uva and Southern Province.

What would therefore clearly emerge by revisiting the results of the 2004 general elections is that the formation of the alliance weakened the SLFP to less than 67 seats, taking also into consideration that other smaller parties were also in the alliance, though the alliance helped the SLFP to form the Government.

The ruling SLFP is able to demonstrate from the results of the series of current Provincial Council elections that it can form the next government without relying on any of the smaller parties. However such a move may be unlikely. It would not be difficult for the SLFP, given the popularity of President Mahinda Rajapaksa to obtain a 2/3rd majority, if General Elections are held next year as anticipated, soon after the Presidential Elections, other things remaining the same.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa has an additional bit of luck emerging from current developments. Similar to the LTTE unwittingly contributing to the UPFA victory at the 2005 Presidential Elections, the current attempts by certain western countries to tighten the screws on President Mahinda Rajapaksa and the armed forces on alleged violations of human rights and humanitarian laws would help President Mahinda Rajapaksa to win the next elections with a majority surpassing President J.R. Jayewardene`s 4/5 majority at the 1977 General Elections. The difference is that the 1977 General Elections was held under the first past the post system, while achieving even a 2/3rd majority under the present PR system would be ordinarily a difficult task.

Surpassing the 4/5 majority under the PR system would be another major achievement following the annihilation of the LTTE, that President Rajapaksa will very likely achieve, given the western orchestrated attempts to press on with war crime charges against the country`s leaders. In this background, if the UNP persists in its present strategy of being seen as supportive of these western attempts, the major party in the opposition would lose further and end up as another small party.

The UNP is said to be working on forming an alliance with the rest of the parties. Any alliance even if it includes the TNA will not help the UNP to come any where close to preventing the SLFP from reaching a near 2/3rd majority, given the current mood of the country.

The plight of the JVP forgetting the UNP for a moment - at the Provincial Council elections would clearly illustrate the electoral realities and the unfolding question of whether the JVP could win even a double digit number of MPs in the next Parliament.

Any alliance between the UNP and the JVP would certainly help the JVP to come back with a larger number, undoubtedly at the cost of the UNP. The danger to proactive democracy in Sri Lanka is that both the UNP and the JVP would be relegated to the rank of small parties with no prospects of the emergence of a strong opposition which could hold out the hopes of becoming the alternative government. Everyone knows that there is very little that the JVP could agree with the UNP on policies or principles.

The country needs a strong opposition with vision and foresight and not one where parties do not know where they are heading.

Meanwhile the TNA has invited the SLMC to form an alliance of minorities. Muslims in the East have raised the question whether the TNA had abandoned the object of establishing an autonomous region in the North and Eastern Provinces for them to consider the invitation.

(Freedom Watch is a voluntary group of Sri Lankans seeking to participate in promoting greater political awareness on current issues of interest in the country and can be reached at freedomwatch@yamil.com)