(GREG JOYCE, The Canadian Press,July 14, 2008 at 8:09 PM EDT)

VANCOUVER American army deserter Robin Long could be deported to his country as early as Tuesday after a Federal Court judge rejected his application for a stay of his deportation order.

Mr. Long, 25, fled to Canada in 2005 to avoid serving in Iraq. He was arrested in Nelson, B.C., last October on a Canada-wide warrant.

Bob Ages, chairman of the Vancouver War Resisters` Support Campaign, said Monday outside the court that he believes Long`s removal would mark the first time an army deserter living in Canada has been deported.

Mr. Long said he sought refuge in Canada because the U.S. army wanted him to participate in what he calls an illegal war of aggression in Iraq.

In her ruling, Federal Court of Canada Justice Anne Mactavish says Mr. Long did not provide clear and convincing evidence that he will suffer irreparable harm if he is returned to the United States.

Judge Mactavish notes that the percentage of American military deserters who are prosecuted for desertion has increased since 2002.

But she says the evidence also suggests that the vast majority of American deserters were not prosecuted let alone jailed for desertion.

Between 2002 and 2006, the judge says evidence before her suggests that about 94 per cent of U.S. deserters were dealt with administratively, merely receiving a less than honourable discharge from the military.

She says Mr. Long failed to provide clear evidence to support his contention that he would be singled out for harsh treatment by the Americans because of the publicity associated with his case.

Mr. Ages said he is unaware of any other recourse for Mr. Long and that he will likely be deported on Tuesday.

We will be caucusing, trying to figure out what we can do, Mr. Ages said.

He said he expected that Mr. Long would be returned to Fort Knox, held in detention and court-martialed.

Ages said there wasn`t likely enough time to take the ruling to the Federal Court of Appeal.

I don`t think there`s time to even file papers, he said. We`re down to the wire here.

Mr. Ages said the Federal Court proceedings Monday were aimed at getting an order staying Long`s removal while they fought an earlier negative ruling from an Immigration and Refugee Border official.

She`s refused us the ability to follow due process and exhaust all his legal avenues in Canada.

Mr. Long said earlier that he enlisted in the army because he came from a lower-class family and didn`t have access to adequate health care and education.

He`s one of several U.S. army deserters who have claimed refugee status in Canada.

None of the claims has been successful.

Mr. Ages said there are about 50 deserters that have contacted his group and are at various stages in their battle to remain in Canada.

But we`ve also been told that there are hundreds underground.

Mr. Long got into trouble when he moved to B.C. without informing the Immigration and Refugee Board from Ontario.

Robin did make a mistake but we`re not talking about a capital offence here, Mr. Ages said.

He thought that basically the IRB had to know where he is. He thought he`d find a place to stay in the Kootenays and let them know where he was.

We`re talking about an administrative error.