A war neither side can win. A desolate landscape being created in the North. The South waging a 1st World war with 3rd World Economy. Vengeful Tamils in the Diaspora and Sinhala extremists constantly beating the war drum. No, it is not their sons and daughters in the trench lines, many of them know only English. The weapons production factories in Pakistan and China are keeping the armories of Mahinda and Prabhakaran supplied. When the war finally ends, who knows when, what will be left of Sri Lanka? I suspect most Sri Lankans are incapable of rational thinking, so it doesn't help to think that far ahead.
Mahinda, Prabhakaran and the Rest of Us
December 10, 2008
By Yarlan
The Final War as planned by the LTTE chief is not about grand set-piece conventional battles. The war planners in Colombo failed to learn from the Jayasikuru operation in the Vanni. Holding real estate in asymmetric warfare is very costly to a guerrilla army such as the LTTE. Even though they possessed the capability to wage to conventional warfare, that capability is limited and in comparison to their capacity to wage asymmetric warfare. The LTTE planners mostly likely anticipated the type of operation undertaken by Sarath Fonseka. Sarath Fonseka's formula for success is predicated on the raising of new army divisions to confront the LTTE at multiple fronts in the Vanni and then hold the captured territory. And support these formations by way of punitive air strikes on enemy concentrations and its critical assets. The flaw with this strategy, is that the LTTE already anticipated such moves by the SLDF. Faced with an army that has superior man power and fire power, what would you do? Fight a defensive war and make it very costly to hold territory it captures. I am sure Sarath Fonseka must have read the Art of War by Sun Tzu. Surely, this is what Prabhakaran would have expected of him. Let us look at the strategy adopted by the Iraqi military commanders when they knew it they couldn t afford to have direct military confrontations with the superior American military power. So, they made it very costly to occupy their lands (i.e., Sunni dominated Anbar and Diyala Provinces and parts of Baghdad itself) while at the same time the Shia militias attacked the supply conveys. What the Pentagon planners anticipated to be a quick war won by precession guided mombs, smart munitions, and cruise missiles, supported by the most advanced weaponry of the world in ground attacks turned out to be a very costly occupation, with more than five years gone since the capture of Baghdad itself, that is still costing the American tax payers billions of dollars a month. The war which cost more than 4,000 American lives (in a population of over 310 million people) is one of the two main reasons behind the election of Barack Obama to be the next President of the United States. The other reason being the state of the economy. Sri Lanka s total population is about 6% of the U.S. population with a GDP that is a minute fraction of the GDP of the later! The war casualties in Sri Lanka from the inception of the conflict are over 50,000 dead! This is not counting the thousands of civilian victims of the war. The war casualties in Sri Lanka would be equivalent to approximately 816,000 Americans dying in combat! Prabhakaran is a military mastermind and a shrewd politician who had studied his enemies well before the enemies even crossed his path. These are not my words. These were the words from the former Indian military generals whose troops battled the LTTE.
What Sarath Fonseka has tried to do, is to prove his predecessors wrong, on a much grander scale. Now, President Rajapakse has to spend 200 billion rupees (close $1.8 billion!) to maintain an army of occupation, with supply lines stretching from Vavuniya to abandoned towns, villages and military encampments, and spread out over a territory with hostile population. The ultimate objective of the Final War as conceived by the LTTE leaders is to bring total economic collapse to Sri Lanka. To this end, only you can make a judgment on how far they have succeeded.
This brings me to the question of why Prabhakaran preferred Mahinda Rajapakse over Ranil Wickremasinghe. It was part and parcel of the strategy behind the Final War. It was not the alleged international safety net he feared in Ranil. No, the Indians were already on the hunt. Prabhakaran knew what would happen if someone of such caliber ascends to the Presidency. Instead of the Final War, he might have to face the possibility of signing a peace treaty on a final settlement of the ethnic conflict. Based on what I know he did and what he tried to do, I believe Ranil envisioned rule of law and a Constitution reformed to suit the needs of a multi-cultural society such as that prevails in Sri Lanka. Fortunately for Prabhakaran, as much as he feared the Federalist approach promoted by Ranil, the JVP-JHU leaders feared the threats to the Unitary State even more.
In order to achieve the final objective of Final War, he wanted someone with a mindset of Srimao Bandaranaike. The Tamil intelligentsia in the Diaspora wanted to show the international community, what they perceive to be the extremist side of the Sinhalese people, and to demonstrate in very clear terms the ethnic biases and prejudices entertained by the Sinhala leaders in Colombo. That, President Rajapakse has delivered through his trusted General. He not only exceeded the expectations of the popular base behind the LTTE, but even shocked the senses of many Tamils who still believed that reconciliation and a peaceful coexistence with the Sinhalese was worth pursuing. Now, their voices had been silenced by the virtue of unleashing of terror on the Tamil populace under the guise of fighting LTTE terrorists. Did this war have to happen? You decide. But, it can happen to any to country ruled by men who lack the will and imagination to inspire its people. And it surely will happen to countries where its leaders consult with astrologers on matters of life and death. This is why, my friends, you are where you today. I know what the British did to the Sinhala people. Unfortunately, many Tamils don t know that part of our sordid history. It is because of the British we have this war today. But, how long will it take before we can have a country governed by laws and institutions that reflect the will and aspirations of all of its people instead of being governed by laws and institutions designed more in reaction to what the British did and fears of the country being separated? There is nothing to prevent Sri Lanka from flourishing as a unified prosperous State if only the extremists from the Sinhala and Tamil sides let the rest of the people they hold in bondage to chart their own destinies.
Edited By - yarlan - 30 Dec 2008 14:14:45 GMT |