Salient factors
There are other salient factors to be noted.
Strenuous claims have been made that the LTTE has lost more than 9,000 in the fighting to date on the northern fronts. This however is not true. The Tigers may have lost half that number around 4- 4500.
Sadly, the bulk of those killed were those conscripted against their will and sent to the frontline as cannon fodder without adequate training.
The state s propaganda machinery dscribes the corpses of these pathetic war victims as terror bodies and gloats about the numbers killed.In actual terms these youngsters are not accredited by the LTTE as full fledged LTTE cadres.
When injured they are handed over to families instead of being nursed at Tiger hospitals. When killed the bodies are disposed of unceremoniously or given to the families for last rites.
No LTTE funeral ceremony for these children of a lesser God. No permanent abode at Great Hero cemeteries.
It is estimated that roughly 3000 3500 of those Tigers killed in the fighting to date were these raw, recruits or conscripts.
What this means is that the bulk of those LTTE cadres killed were these new youths. The old experienced cadres have suffered comparatively less losses.
Finest and fittest
Therefore the LTTE continues to retain the majority of its trained and experienced cadre base.
Interestingly very few of the LTTE s specialised, elite formations like the different special Force units or the Leopard commando division have been killed or injured in past fighting.
This in turn means that Prabhakaran has held in reserve the greater or best part of his fighting formations. The finest and fittest are being preserved for use at a later stage.
As stated before setting up three rings of defence and deploying personnel and resources to safeguard those suggest that Prabhakaran has determined his defence priorities.
In that respect, the greatest importance is afforded not to territory on the whole but only to strategic areas. It is not quantitative but qualitative territory that counts most in Prabhakaran s calculations.
In the final analysis the boundaries of a state (or state in formation) are those which can be maintained and defended absolutely.
Instead of trying to hold on to lands that are in terms of ratio, disproportionately larger to the number of cadres available to help retain it, Prabhakaran seems to have opted to define a viable, strategic area and defend it with an optimum force.
War of attrition
Another reason perhaps for Prabhakaran to keep the best of his lot in reserve may have something to do with the avowed war of attrition waged by the armed forces.
As stated many times the objective of the armed forces in the earlier stages was not to capture real estate but draw out as many LTTE cadres as possible and kill them. History is replete with instances of attrition warfare.
It appears that in his own cold blooded way, Prabhakaran has avoided the attrition trap by expending only a defined number of inexperienced in the early phases of fighting.
He has opted to forego territory rather than lose his elite fighters.
Final showdown
The stage then is being set for the inevitable finale or final showdown. The important question is how many cadres does the LTTE have?
Once again we would err grievously if we rely solely on figures furnished by those in high places about the depleted tiger cadres.
These assertions with several inconsistencies are presumably made for propagandistic purpose and should be taken with more than a pinch of salt.
According to informed Tamil sources the LTTE at the time of the ceasefire in February 2002 had around 23, 000 full time cadres.
The Karuna revolt, the dropping out of cadres wanting to return to civilian life or go abroad in a post ceasefire scenario etc brought down the numbers to about 12,000.
However factors such as recent massive conscription, the raising of a civilian militia, re- inducting retired cadres and freshly inducting civilian tiger employees such as Police etc have increased the number of personnel available for fighting to more than 50,000.
Of these about 25,- 30, 000 are fighting fit . This included about 12 15,000 well trained experienced cadres.
Military resources
Another pertinent fact is that very little is known about other LTTE military resources.
Much of recent fund raising was for the ostensible purpose of modernising . Very little intelligence is available of what exactly have been acquired.
No one knows for instance the number and types of aircraft in the LTTE Air wing. Therefore, the Tigers are capable of springing quite a few surprises in this respect.
Sustained supplies
Finally, there is the multi crore question of sustained supplies. As far as the LTTE is concerned a very great deal depends on its ability to ensure a steady supply flow from abroad by sea.
The reported successes of the Navy in taking down many Tiger ships seemed to have disrupted that flow in the past. This in turn was reflected in the battlefront contributing to low key Tiger resistance at times.
In recent times there seems to have been a marked improvement in procuring supplies. This in turn is reflected in the battlefield where Tigers are raining shells and firing off myriad rounds.
This means that either the tigers have streamlined their supply modes again or those agencies that were helping Sri Lanka to restrict Tiger supplies are letting the LTTE off the hook or a combination of both.
Apparently many nations that helped Sri Lanka fight terrorism are now concerned at the Rajapaksa regime and adopting a watch and wait attitude.
Critical phase
It is patently clear that the war is now entering a critical phase.
The armed forces have virtually demolished the primary defence ring and have penetrated through the secondary defence ring. They are now at the gates of the tertiary defence ring around the strategically important LTTE zone. The alarm bells are ringing!
Strategic transformation
In such a situation it would be foolish for the LTTE to keep on fighting in the defensive mode as it has done so far. The situation is ripe for a strategic transformation. Events are moving rapidly. It would be a monumental blunder to underestimate the LTTE and its leader. The situation is such that the Tigers have to strike back soon or be confined to the dustbins of history.
Velupillai Prabhakaran is a master strategist and certainly understands that the war has to be taken to the enemy instead of waiting for the enemy to come to him.
The crouching Tiger will have to pounce.
It would be hard to predict the final outcome of such a confrontation. But what is predictably certain is the discovery that the Tigers though down are not out.
D.B.S.Jeyaraj can be reached at
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Edited By - Thalaivar - 20 Dec 2008 02:50:47 GMT |
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