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Sri Lanka Govt. trying to win the Derby with a Donkey - Ranil
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yarlan
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 2 Dec 2008 22:41:17 GMT Report for Abuse
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The Final War & and Why Ranil Wickremasinge was Defeated in the Presidential Election.
The Final War as planned by the LTTE chief is not about grand set-piece conventional battles. I suspect that the late Janaka Perera began to understand the true nature of the type of war Prabhakaran was waging. Many Sinhala war drummers failed to learn from the Jayasikuru operation in the Vanni. Holding real estate in asymmetric warfare is very costly to a guerrilla army such as the LTTE. Even though they possessed the capability to wage to conventional warfare, that capability was limited and paled in comparison to their capacity to wage asymmetric warfare. The LTTE planners mostly likely anticipated the type of operation undertaken by Sarath Fonseka. Sarath Fonseka s formula for success is predicated on the raising of new army divisions to confront the LTTE at multiple fronts in the Vanni and then hold the captured territory. And support these formations by way of punitive air strikes on enemy concentrations and its critical assets. The only problem with this strategy, probably crafted by the Pakistani military advisors, is that the enemy already anticipated such moves by the SLDF. Faced with an army that has superior man power and fire power, what would you do? Fight a defensive war and make it very costly to hold territory it captures. Also, preserve your critical assets and withdraw if needed (not even waging a defensive war as necessitated by ground conditions). I am sure Sarath Fonseka must have read the Art of War by Sun Tzu. But, his egos must have had the better of him. Many of you may not even realize it. But, this is very similar to the strategy adopted by the Iraqi military commanders when they knew it they couldn t afford to have direct military confrontations with the superior American military power. So, they made it very costly to occupy their lands (i.e., Sunni dominated Anbar and Diyala Provinces and parts of Baghdad itself) while at the same time the Shia militias attacked the supply conveys.
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yarlan
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2 Dec 2008 22:42:11 GMT Report for Abuse
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| What Sarath Fonseka has accomplished, is the re-playing of the Jayasikuru offensive of which he himself played a role, on a much grander scale. Now, President Rajapakse has to find the means to maintain an army of occupation, with supply lines stretching from Vavuniya to abandoned towns, villages and military encampments, and spread out over a territory with hostile population. If you contrast this situation to the challenges the LTTE faced 20 years ago, in their confrontations with the IPKF, then you will come to appreciate what could be in store to make this occupation as much costly and painful to the occupier as possible. |
Robins
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 2 Dec 2008 22:42:44 GMT Report for Abuse
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Derby with Donkey Ranil
Mr B called Ranil a Donkey instead of Cabball:))))))))))
We are happy they are both donkies for Tamils:))))))))))) |
yarlan
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2 Dec 2008 22:43:28 GMT Report for Abuse
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| This brings me to the question of why Prabhakaran preferred Mahinda Rajapakse over Ranil Wickremasinghe. It was part and parcel of the strategy behind the Final War. It was not the alleged international safety net he feared in Ranil. No, the Indians were already on the hunt. It was what Ranil Wikremasinghe embodied for Sri Lanka. I still remember that immediately after the CFA was signed in February 2002, Ranil went to Jaffna and attended a puja in the Nallur temple. What was remarkable was that he respected the local traditions and went inside the temple, bare-chested. Prabhakaran knew what would happen if someone of such caliber ascends to the Presidency. Instead of the Final War, he might have to face the possibility of signing a peace treaty on a final settlement of the ethnic conflict. Based on what I know he did and what he tried to do, I believe Ranil envisioned rule of law and a Constitution reformed to suit the needs of a multi-cultural society such as that prevails in Sri Lanka. Fortunately for Prabhakaran, as much as he feared the Federalist approach promoted by Ranil, the JVP-JHU leaders feared the threats to the Unitary State even more. |
KURAL
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2 Dec 2008 22:43:50 GMT Report for Abuse
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HaHaHa thats a good one Shan. :))
Ranil is the most unfortunate man in Sri Lanka! |
yarlan
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2 Dec 2008 22:44:31 GMT Report for Abuse
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In order to achieve the final objective of Final War, he wanted someone with a mindset of Srimao Bandaranaike. The Tamil intelligentsia in the Diaspora wanted to show the international community, what they perceive to be the true face of the Sinhala nation, and to demonstrate in very clear terms the ethnic biases and prejudices entertained by the Sinhala leaders in Colombo. That, President Rajapakse has delivered. He not only exceeded the expectations of the popular base behind the LTTE, but even shocked the senses of many Tamils who still believed that reconciliation and a peaceful coexistence with the Sinhalese was worth pursuing. Now, their voices had been silenced by the virtue of unleashing of terror on the Tamil populace under the guise of fighting LTTE terrorists. This war didn t have to happen. But, it happens to countries lead by men who can t think beyond their ethnic mindsets and heed the advice given on statecraft by religious leaders. This is why, my friends, you are where you today. And why Ranil has been demonized in the vernacular Sinhala press as a traitor to the nation ( Sinhala nation ). If only the average Sinhala voter has the sense to see through the politicians call to stir up Sinhala patriotism, then he could one day grasp at the possibility, which is that Prabhakaran s LTTE doesn t operate in a political vacuum.
Yarlan can be contacted at: whereideasbegin@gmail.com
Edited By - yarlan - 2 Dec 2008 22:46:23 GMT |
KURAL
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2 Dec 2008 22:47:36 GMT Report for Abuse
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Yarlan,
Please don't reveal the master plans !
Edited By - KURAL - 2 Dec 2008 22:59:13 GMT |
Bassa
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 2 Dec 2008 22:54:53 GMT Report for Abuse
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Yarlan:
a few points for you to ponder:
the sldf has become quite competent at fighting asymmetrically against the ltte....example the lrrp, the dpu etc...small teams engaging in 'guerrilla' attacks against the enemy.
i think that the assumption that the ltte have unconditional support in the local population is a stretch
this is a war of attrition....the kill ratio is overwhelmingly against the ltte and so are the absolute number of fighters
there is now limited time, place and equipment for the ltte to train
the ltte are themselves facing major logistical problems in acquiring supplies
ltte lack indian and international support and credibility.....
Just a few things to ponder...there are many more reasons to think that this time around, the ltte is a spent force. the only strategy would be to negotiate...but they can't negotiate from a position of strength as they are not strong enough to do that....that is the price of velu's strategic errors catching up with him. |
shan
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 2 Dec 2008 23:00:49 GMT Report for Abuse
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| It is carbon copy of IPKF operation. Occupy and control the area with large number of forces. You will never win over the people by doing this. |
Gaja
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 2 Dec 2008 23:01:54 GMT Report for Abuse
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Government appointing Ajith Nivard Cabraal as Governor of the Central Bank was like entering a donkey to win the Derby.
Participation is the key where one is not able to show positive outcomes. The longer it takes to complete the race the better. Right decision.
Edited By - Gaja - 2 Dec 2008 23:03:23 GMT |
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