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Three times in three weeks

After Akkarayankulam was captured one way or another three times in three weeks, there has been a dip in reporting on the imminent fall of Kilinochchi. By all accounts, 57th Division's advance has once again reached a sticky point, with little news of any advance towards Kilinochchi town.

What the Defence Ministry has done instead to keep up the hype is focus on the achievements of Task Force 1, which has cleared the western coast in the Kilinochchi District and not the town.

While the 57th Division is ploughing into the heart of Kilinochchi at snail's pace and allegedly with heavy casualties, Task Force 1, which is making the headlines capturing several areas on the north western coast, is effectively avoiding and going around Kilinochchi in its advance.

This is a prudent military tactic even under the current risky strategy of fighting an attrition war against a guerrilla terrorist group however it has little bearing on efforts to capture Kilinochchi town.

Thus what the Defence Ministry is doing is announcing the fall of several bastions in the 'Kilinochchi District' such as Nachchikuda, Kiranchi, Devil's Point and others in order to cover up the lack of progress toward Kilinochchi town itself, over what has now been a period of almost one month.

Expensive

The seriousness of the emerging crisis hit the President in the gut when he was told by the Central Bank that even the US$ 300 million which the government looked to raise was hard to come by due to the global credit crunch, and more so for a country having to fund an expensive and never-ending war.

Apart from the economic factors, the President was also alive to the ground realities on the war front including the high casualties and desertion rates, which meant the security forces would have to fight many more pitched battles before 'mission accomplished' can be claimed and that in turn meant a much greater financial commitment for the war effort.

So much so while TNA MPs in the parliamentary lobby claimed on Thursday, 700 soldiers were killed in Muhamalai that day, Minister Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena was to deny it to UNP MPs Ranjith Aluvihare and Sagala Ratnayaka, claiming the figure was more like 460.

The Minister was to also say that according to the Army Commander, Muhamalai cannot be taken without heavy losses and that to take Kilinochchi too, a high casualty rate will have to be suffered.

The President's case was not made any easier on the eastern front either with the LTTE once again infiltrating the region and destabilising it, further to the TMVP's internal battles aggravating an already tense situation.

When you haven't understand this religion you shouldn't talk about it, my advice.

Murder

This was made all the more evident by Chief Minister Chandrakanthan alias Pillayan broadly hinting that the murder of his Private Secretary cum TMVP Political Leader Ragu was an inside job and not a LTTE hit, contrary to claims made by Karuna.

Mind you, these developments came even as a Sinhala doctor was killed in Batticaloa and Karuna warning the government not to send any Sinhala doctors to rural areas in the east for security reasons, highlighting in the process, the so-called 'liberation' of the east was nothing more than a myth.

It is in this backdrop that the President thought it fit after consulting astrologers to dissolve parliament by December 9 and go for an early general election before the security situation free falls and the economic tsunami hits Sri Lanka in all its ferocity by around March 2009 though not many in government were happy with an early poll.

The most concerned of course were the government's alliance partners, especially the UNP defectors who wanted a little more time to decide whether they will link up with the SLFP or go back to the grand old party, factors which were not lost on the President who wanted to take full advantage of the surprise factor.

Top favourite

However, there were other astrologers, including top favourite Sumanadasa from Galle telling the President, the period commencing November 30, 2008 to November 30, 2009 is very bad for the UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and was therefore the opportune time for elections and it is in the face of this dilemma the President told Health Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva on Sunday to make a statement there will be no early elections, whilst of course keeping his options open on the issue till December 9. That is the day, given by Sumanadasa as a 'good day' for dissolution.

Indeed to cause confusion was the name of the game with Sumanadasa allegedly telling UNP Badulla District MP Lakshman Seneviratne that the President's time was bad and was therefore advised not to go for early elections.

wesamuniya wara reeri yaka wara

mahasono wara kadawaraya wara

naaga yaka wara bahiwaraya war

kotiyo kanna wara velu kanna wara