Political somersaulting after recent rebel attack
Why the attack on the Anuradhapura air base is an egg in the Rajapaksas face and absolutely nothing for the
UNP to crow about?
By Dharisha Bastians
?Where is there a war in this country? Show me the war in Sri Lanka. This is just a humanitarian operation?
- President Mahinda Rajapaksa in response to a journalist`s question at the `Maadhya Hamuwa` on Friday, October 19
Talk about having to eat your words.
The dawn of Monday saw the
LTTE`s elite Black Tiger brigade launch a devastating attack on the Anuradhapura Air Base, leaving mass destruction in their wake. The Anuradhapura base was recently upgraded and a fully-fledged air force base, housing some of the country`s most valued assets in terms of air power.
The Tigers` onslaught proved a costly one, with some 17 craft destroyed completely and the tragedy of a Bell 212 crew being killed in friendly fire during the ensuing chaos.
But apart from the obvious security lapses and military ramifications of Monday`s pre-dawn attack, the incident also proved to be a massive wake up call for a government that has been making far too much noise lately about turning Tigers into pussycats and having them on the run.
To say that the Rajapaksa coterie has been gloating over their military victories in the east and so on would be putting it mildly.
There has been no shortage of the gung-ho speeches about marching onwards towards the north with the Tigers fleeing before them with their tails between their legs in the recent past and the pomp and ceremony with which the `flushing` of the east was celebrated was almost nauseating, in light of the ongoing suffering of the displaced and still vulnerable living in those areas. Unhampered by considerations such as the great costs at which such victories have come (an abysmal human rights record, for instance), the Rajapaksa administration, or more specifically the `brothers inc.` have been strutting around like the cats that got the cream, with Defence Secretary
Gotabhaya Rajapaksa taking the most credit for the successes on the battlefront. By the same reasoning, when there is such a breach of national security and such a severe setback for the military, it makes sense that the blame should fall on the Defence Secretary as well.
So no doubt there was much gnashing of teeth at Temple Trees as the news broke early Monday morning, especially since the President`s televised meeting with journalists at which he made light of the conflict had occurred only 48 hours earlier. It was an ominous reminder also of the fact that the LTTE`s statements are not to be taken lightly all the time, although the organisation resorts to its own share of political rhetoric occasionally.
The Tigers` warning that November would be crucial might be something to be taken into account, given that the first salvo has already been fired ? and its only October yet. Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese strategist in his Art of War imparted the sound advice ? `never underestimate your enemies` ? advice that it would behove this government to heed on occasion. It would certainly be a lot better than being caught stupendously unaware and licking our wounds at the end of what was undoubtedly an embarrassingly and precise attack by the enemy.
The
JVP put it astutely recently when it made a statement in Parliament to the effect that the government`s existence depended on a single thread, given the blatant corruption and mismanagement that has been the trademark of this administration for two years. The man on the street has endured the skyrocketing cost of living, the lack of development and the arrogance of politicians fattening themselves on the land, largely because of the comparative successes on the eastern theatre of war. This setback, normal as it might be for a country fighting a war, will however make the populace fidgety and statements such as `well at least there is something being done about the LTTE` uttered in the past, are quite likely to become `this government is good for nothing` if air strikes such as these were to continue.
All of this will weigh heavy on the minds of those running the country they are also the same things that will have the opposition whooping for joy. Undoubtedly, the UNP has smelt blood with Monday`s attack. The opposition has been biding its time, unable to take the government on fully so far since it has drawn most of its popular support from the war effort making it virtually invincible, realistically speaking.
The Anuradhapura attack was devastating to say the least, and no doubt the UNP is calling to mind the fact that it was the similarly destructive Katunayake air base attack in July 2001 that was the undoing of President
Chandrika Kumaratunga`s one year old government, with large numbers of her loyalists crossing over to the opposition ? where some of them remain to this day.
The present UNP therefore is likely to milk Monday`s attack for all it is worth, a fact that was evident when Parliament met yesterday to commence this week`s sessions. Fiery opposition MPs took on the government based on various reports of damages and called for the resignation of the Defence Secretary, while the Chief Government Whip, Jeyaraj Fernandopulle merely responded with a watered down, ?We can`t say anything because these are matters pertaining to national security.?
The opposition might also believe that Senior
SLFPers, already disgruntled with the hijacking of the party by the Rajapaksa family, might finally be looking at joining the opposition ranks, something they have not shown an inclination for so far. This latest setback is likely however to make the administration less popular with the masses and like rats deserting a sinking ship they might walk over and leave the Rajapaksas in a quandary ? or so the UNP might like to think. It is certainly true that since Monday, things have been looking more favourable to the opposition for the time being.
But caution needs to be exercised. Security lapses and debacles are certainly matters to take the government to task on, but the UNP would do well to refrain from looking like it were gloating overmuch over Monday`s military setback. It has already earned a bad rep for being treacherous and unpatriotic and over-appeasing the Tigers during its short stint in office ? the last thing the opposition party needs now is to lose whatever southern support they might have garnered since the
presidential election of 2005 by looking a little too happy about the Anuradhapura fiasco.
It is therefore a double edged sword, if any one party is hoping to gain political mileage from Monday`s incident. It would do the government good to refrain from making grandiose statements about vengeance and the desperate acts of fleeing Tigers, while the opposition too would do well to wait and watch the developments before striking too great a blow prematurely.
A week of parliamentary sessions stretches before us. How will the government and opposition play out the Anuradhapura attack and who will win this round?
