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Immediate changes unlikely from crossover
Wednesday, 31 January 2007 - 2:58 AM SL Time
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The entry into the government of a solid phalanx of the opposition did not come as a surprise. It had been anticipated for most of the past year. The reason it did not happen earlier was the resistance to the cross over from within both the government and the opposition. Government allies, such as the JVP, threatened that they would withdraw the support from outside that they had been giving the government. The UNP also threatened that they would cease to cooperate with the government, even concerning the ethnic conflict, if defectors from the party were entertained by the government.
The difficulties that were encountered along the way might suggest that once the cross over was accomplished, as it has, there would be dramatic changes to be seen. But this is unlikely and it is also unlikely that there will be any significant changes in policy in the short term. There is no strong pressure on the government to change a successful strategy that has seen its opposition, both political and LTTE, humbled in the course of the year. The longer term, however, may see positive changes as the capacity of those who have crossed over from the opposition to government ranks is very high, and the problems facing the country are not short term ones by any means.
The indications at present are that there will be two constants in the short term. One is that the war will continue with broad support from the majority of the population, in particular the Sinhalese majority. The recent Social Indicator poll conducted by the Centre for Policy Alternatives has shown that more than half of the Sinhalese polled favour the military weakening of the LTTE, even though most of them also favour a political solution to the ethnic conflict. So far the government`s war against the LTTE has gone relatively successfully, and the direct costs to the majority of people have been low.
The economy is also holding up better than might be anticipated of a country that is spending over a quarter of its budget on defence. Due to relatively high inflation, fixed income earners have been badly affected by the rising cost of living. The tourism sector is also suffering from the sharp drop in tourist arrivals due to the war conditions and travel advisories issued by foreign governments. But growth figures for the past year are likely to touch 8 percent, which is the highest in nearly two decades, and forecasts for growth this year are also close to that figure. The continuing availability of funds for tsunami reconstruction, agricultural growth and the commencement of big donor funded development projects accounts for this growth.
Not even pressure from the international community can compel the government to change its course. Although several European countries are openly dissatisfied with the government`s approach to the peace process and to human rights abuses, there is little leverage that they actually have on the government. Some donor countries have decided to show their displeasure to the government by sending low level delegations to the donor forum meeting in Galle being held at the present time. But the biggest donors are going to be there in strength, which reveals the difference of opinion within the donor community itself. There is little wonder that the Rajapaksa government is riding high, in the short term.
Pernicious feature
Therefore, in the short term, the government may feel it has no reason to change its approach to anything, be it the war, human rights abuses or the economy, in anyway, as it is succeeding by going on its present course. However, from a humanitarian point of view, it is tragic that the government`s successful approach to the war should be at the cost of tens of thousands of internally displaced Tamil civilians and to the violation of human rights of another large number of them who live in constant fear due to the war conditions around them. Unfortunately, Sri Lanka is still at a stage where violence towards our own population is accepted, so long as political stability can be ensured. This same attitude prevailed during the two JVP insurrections of 1971 and 1988-89.
There have been hopes that the entry of a strong contingent of leading UNP members into the government will lead to a change of approach in crucial aspects of governance. The war, corruption and lack of faith in the institutions of state are the most prominent indicators of deep rooted problems in the polity. The now aborted Memorandum of Understanding between the SLFP-UNP specified certain areas of governance that the two parties promised to give their priority attention to, and devoid of party politics. These included reformulating the 17th Amendment to ensure merit-based appointments to senior positions in the state apparatus, curbing corruption and finding a peaceful solution to the ethnic conflict. These are all areas in which the government has been following morally questionable policies.
Indeed, it was anticipated that the UNP members who had a reformist orientation would sign a new Memorandum of Understanding with the government prior to joining it. While they were in the UNP they had worked hard to get their party to sign an MOU with the government on the key issues facing the country, and also devised a mechanism to implement it. But apparently they were unable to make good on their intention and appear to have joined the government on the basis of verbal assurances. Perhaps they realized it makes no difference whether they sign an MOU or not.
It is again unfortunate that at its present stage of evolution, Sri Lankan politicians who have power in their hands do not appear to give much weightage to memoranda of understanding or to agreements. They do not honour those agreements and break them the moment they can get away with breaking them for something better. This pernicious feature can be seen in both the dishonouring of the Ceasefire Agreement by the government and LTTE and the MOU that was signed late last year by the SLFP and UNP. Therefore even if the cross overs from the UNP have reached agreement with the government about a common policy to be followed after they join, it probably would have been difficult for them to get the government to abide by it.
Achilles heel
On the other hand, the members of the UNP who have decided to join the government comprise top level thinkers and liberals. The entry of these members will undoubtedly strengthen the government to make a more sophisticated response to the problems it faces in all areas of governance. Even if the government is not prepared to fundamentally change its approach to conflict resolution and good governance, there is much that the UNP cross overs will be able to do to improve the government`s delivery and image within the present parameters. In particular, economic reforms that were being blocked by lack of support from the JVP may now be possible.
But in the final analysis, the Achilles heel of the government will likely be the ethnic conflict. So long as the LTTE remains an outlaw organisation, the political and economic stability of the country will be a fragile one. If the LTTE`s suicide boat attack on the Colombo port this weekend had succeeded the political and economic repercussions would have been serious. Even with the failure of the attack, there is speculation that international insurance rates will go up. It can be believed that the LTTE has many suicide bombers left. Sooner or later some of them are going to hit their targets, and when they do, there will be more reason to rethink the wisdom of the current military strategy to resolve the ethnic conflict.
Even though the defection of so many top ranking UNP members will weaken the UNP in the short term, the longer term outcome will depend on how both the government and UNP cope with the changes.
If the government utilises the services of the UNP cross overs to improve its political solution to the ethnic conflict, its human rights record, and its management of the economy, the government will find itself in a problem solving mode that improves the life of the people. On the other hand, if the government fails to solve the problems of the people, the electorate will once again begin to look to the opposition for a change of approach. The breakaway of an important section of the UNP in 1974 did not prevent it from capturing power in 1977.
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tigeress19
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 30 Jan 2007 21:01:40 GMT Report for Abuse
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Immediate changes unlikely from crossover
the cross overs or MoU are nothing as far as 'WE TAMILS' concerned.
what can we expect from a failed , bogus and corrupted state? |
UpulJ
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30 Jan 2007 21:01:49 GMT Report for Abuse
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Everything in place for a Prosperous Sri Lanka.
Doomed era for Eelam Tamil Terrorism.
Edited By - UpulJ - 30 Jan 2007 21:02:50 GMT |
tamilcanuck
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 30 Jan 2007 21:25:58 GMT Report for Abuse
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Nothing new.
same stuff. Infact more ministers now.
if tamils dont get to enjoy the fruits of labour then No one will enjoy it! |
Piyal
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 30 Jan 2007 21:35:09 GMT Report for Abuse
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TC,
if tamils dont get to enjoy the fruits of labour then No one will enjoy it!
It's not the real situation, it's just an imagination.
The real deal is, as long as the current election system is in effect, the MP's will enjoy and gather wealth for 7 more generations.
If we can have the previous system, that the MP is responsible for the voters in their respective area, they know they have to work and corruption 'free' (minimal). So they do their job as much as they can.
In this system, there is no particular responsibility, and if you have the required number of preferential votes, you are in, and the life is in the 7th heaven.
Under this system
NO ONE WILL ENJOY IT OTHER THAN STUPID POLITICIANS. |
LankanWay
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30 Jan 2007 21:35:40 GMT Report for Abuse
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| Hope for a better Sri Lanka under MR. Even though number of ministers are crazy, once the country is stable and government has a clear majority, cabinet size can be cut down. |
AnuD
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30 Jan 2007 21:41:36 GMT Report for Abuse
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Just Garbage In - Garbage out type of aricle, jus scavenging on the top.
The recent Social Indicator poll conducted by the Centre for Policy Alternatives has shown that more than half of the Sinhalese polled favour the military weakening of the LTTE, even though most of them also favour a political solution to the ethnic conflict.
Parkiasothy Saranvanamutthu is the head of this. He can ask question in order to get the answer he wants.
The bottom line is, over the short term MR can use this huge cabinet for his advantage to get a majority govt for his next govt. Again, JVP and JHU should support even in the opposition in a constrcutive way. Because most of these ministers are for greed and nothing else.
JVP and JHU should think about the country over the long term and should help MR in a constructive way.
during the next MR's goal should not be the LTTE. He should handle as much as he can during this term. During the Next term which will be his last term he should take drastic steps to cut the Parliament size to a very low number of which most will be the ministers.
Then most of the powers should be delegated (that can be delegated) to regions, as it seems that regional govts are going to stay.
Some how, this 225 parliament and again regional govts over that are a wastage of resources. A parliament of 20 -35 size should be enough. Central govt. should have parliamentarians just one MP for 500,000 - 1 million people or more. |
AnuD
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30 Jan 2007 21:45:22 GMT Report for Abuse
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if tamils dont get to enjoy the fruits of labour then No one will enjoy it!
Tamils want Respect and the Prosperity and a their own land over the violence.
Best thing is leave LTTE there cornored so that LTTE won't be a headache to the govt., but they can use tamils as much as they want.
It looks like most tamils are a greedy bunch who wants to live on Violence to gain everything. So, we give their own medicine to them and let them handle it. |
pharoah
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30 Jan 2007 21:45:23 GMT Report for Abuse
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more than half of the Sinhalese polled favour the military weakening of the LTTE, even though most of them also favour a political solution to the ethnic conflict
this is a contradiction
typical of sri lanka |
tamilcanuck
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30 Jan 2007 21:46:13 GMT Report for Abuse
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Under this system
NO ONE WILL ENJOY IT OTHER THAN STUPID POLITICIANS.
Piyal,
youre right but the sinhala masses are willing to put up with this crap. they keep electing them and then re electing them.
I'll quote HGB spost here. the link at the bottom is the entire post
Give one reason why the Tamils should remain a part of SL, if all what they are going to get is the governance that they have got so far? Why should anyone, Tamil or Singhalese remain a part of SL for that matter?
Let me put it to you this way, why should the Tamil insurgency be put down if all that's going to do is maintain 66 ministers with their perks? Not many Singhalese seem to get this part of the Tamil revolt.
http://www.lankanewspapers.com/news/2006/11/9422_space.html |
tigeress19
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30 Jan 2007 21:47:10 GMT Report for Abuse
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if tamils dont get to enjoy the fruits of labour then No one will enjoy it!
or
should i say the 'POWER OF MINORITY' in srilanka! |
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